Castro on his way out?

[BMC John Phillips III]

According to this article no, http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060801/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/cuba_castro ,
but I wouldn't be surprised if he is done pretty soon. That being said, how do you think that might affect us? I heard this year has been one of the biggest as far as migrants go. I am a little out of the loop though. Haven't done migrant ops since 94, I can't imagine it being busier now than it was then.

[BMCM Stuart S. Slesh]

We're getting reports down here covering all ends of the spectrum. If Fidel is on his way out and his brother takes over, don't expect any immediate changes. If the Cuba government fell ......?....... I, again I said I, think that the dynamics of the entire Carribean would change. I think businesses would flock back into Cuba, and migrants would go where the work/opportunities are. But there has been speculation about Fidel, his regime, and his health, since sometime back in 1959.

[AMTCM John Long]

I was watching on the news tonight. They bought up an interesting point. Fidel is 80, Raul is 75. Who takes over when they're both gone? The prediction was a big power struggle.

[CMC Bruce Bradley]

John, they also brought up the point of a mass exodus from south Florida to Cuba if he dies. And the DHS plans to stop it or control it. But I have to ask why?

[BMC John Phillips III]

wow, I would have to ask why too!

When I was on the DURABLE we pulled into Cuba (not Guitmo) and I was so impressed with how beautiful a country it is. I was thinking Castro is really hurting his people, because Cuba could give Grand Cayman a run for it's money. Anyway, if I was from Cuba and fled to the US, I would want to go back when Castro was gone.

[BMCM Stuart S. Slesh]

Add how to that question also. How are they going to stop a U.S. citizen from leaving the country ? I don't think that there would be a mass exodus from the U.S. either. I think that some people with the means will return, but others already have new roots, and have made a new life here.

[BMCM Deane Smith]

I doubt that the concern would be people leaving, it would be how they are leaving. What type of boats...how many people per boat...etc.

Safety of lives at sea.

[SKC Raymond Kurtz]

"The main newscast on state-run TV gave no details of the 79-year-old leader's condition, but ran a string of man-on-the-street interviews with Cubans wishing him well and professing confidence in the revolution's staying power. The anchor said Castro had the people's "unconditional support.""

I really love man on the street interviews in a communist country. What would you expect these people to say, that Castro stinks, that there are no freedoms? If anyone had the guts to say it, they would be dead and buried within days.

Don't forget that Hussein bragged that he got nearly 100% of the vote in Iraq.

[AMTCM John Long]

I would also like to visit a free Cuba one day. Been to GITMO enough. I was always curious what's it like on the other side of the fence. If Cuba is like some of the other Caribbean islands I bet there are some beautiful spots there. The north shore of DomRep is pretty, flown along that a few times.

[SKC Raymond Kurtz]

It won't matter if and when Fidel bites the big one. Someone will take his place that is just as bad as he is. Do you honestly think that his son or any other relative will suddenly turn Cuba into a democratic republic? Well, maybe if the people suddenly say enough and rise up and begin a revolution.

[AMTCM John Long]

Raul is Fidel's brother. And yes I think there would be a popular rising amongst the folks. The challenge would be keeping that clown Chavez out of it. It would be interesting. I would speculate the CG would play a big part in the humanitarian side of it. Just a crystal ball opinion. ;)

[BMC Gene Daigle]

In South Florida over the last two days in Little Havana and in Hialeah, nothing but Cuban flags have been flying and people taking to the streets to party. DHS should not do anything to minimize the outflow of Cuban-Americans back to Cuba if they so choose. Then they can write books about the island that are in the local public schools, instead of trying to invoke censorship like has been done recently. I don't know how receptive the Cubans who remained in Cuba would be though. The lobby groups and the anti-Castro locals are the ones who have prevented any type of real economic US trades with Cuba which in the end would have helped the poverty stricken country. Just over a year ago, a Federal law was enacted, placing even further restrictions on travel to Cuba by family members. Seems to me those policies doesn't hurt Castro, just the people. The Intel right now says that there is no signs of a mass-exodus about to take place. If it does happen then the Coast Guard and the country will be ready. Maybe the wet-foot, dry-foot policy can be halted just like any other illegal migrants that we interdict where they are repatriated. A consistent policy that would deter and not reward illegal migration to this country. Or make the wet-foot dry-foot applicable to all, not just Cubans. Things are much worse in Haiti, with daily coupe, and militia and gorillas reeking havoc on the people in the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere.

[ETC Pat Kaschube]

If the Communist government fell would we hold onto Gitmo? I always had the feeling that Gitmo was just a launching point in case Cuba ever got testy. I don't know.

[BMCS Jim Madsen]

We need to keep GITMO at least for logistics and training support if for nothing else. The Carribbean, with it's deep water is great for Naval training (subs), and as long as we have the war on drugs coming from South America and volitile places down there, GITMO will be an important place for our military. Not just the prison camp.

[BMC John Phillips III]

You know I made this prediction a few days ago, but don't worry I don't put too much thought into my predictions, they usually come about thru conversations with miss Cleo. Anyway, I predicted that TS Chris is gonna hit Cuba and that will kill Castro. Even though Castro is probably already dead, a "great" dictator cannot succumb to ordinary illness, it would take an act of God to take him out. That's my logical reasoning for such a prediction. Of course there is no logic in the part where it hits Cuba, that's just my natural abilities :p

I guess we'll see.

looks like Tropical Depression Chris, so I wonder what the excuse will be...

[BMC John Phillips III]

Anyone seen the latest update? They are saying he has about 18 months if he's lucky, I doubt he will last that long. I am still really curious to see how this is gonna pan out for the people of Cuba.

[BMCS Mike Winans]

I have at least a half a dozen or so neighbors on my street (I live is South FL) that say they will not return to Cuba regardless of what happens. Some will probably return and start business, but keep permanent residence here.